TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/103089/10308900.036

Text File | 1992-09-23 | 9.5 KB | 179 lines

                                                                                WORLD, Page 60

EAST GERMANY

Trading Places


As Egon Krenz succeeds the deposed Honecker, he seems willing
to tinker with the system but not revamp it. Will that be
enough?

By Jill Smolowe


    Vacationing in the northern industrial city of Rostock last
month, Egon Krenz decided to attend a soccer match. The outing
may have been business as much as pleasure: as the Politburo
member who handled youth affairs, Krenz also oversaw the
country's sports programs. Soon after Krenz settled into his
seat, an announcement blared over the public address system that
the politician was in the stadium. Cheers and applause? Hardly.
The fans booed lustily.

    Those jeers apparently never reached East Berlin. Last week
party elders demonstrated just how out of touch they are with
the masses by awarding Krenz the country's top political trophy.
Erich Honecker, for 18 years the country's unsmiling, unbudging
leader, was relieved of -his posts as head of state, Communist
Party chief and chairman of the National Defense Council. Krenz,
his protege, was elevated to all three positions. Technically,
the 77-year-old Honecker resigned, citing the poor health that
has plagued him since he underwent gallbladder surgery last
August. But few East Germans doubted that Honecker had been
pushed aside by a leadership increasingly nervous about the
continuing exodus of refugees to the West and the growing clamor
of the stay-behinds for reform at home. At the same time, the
two Politburo members in charge of the economy and mass media
also lost their posts, signaling that a more extensive
housecleaning might be under way.

    Krenz, who had long been expected to succeed his mentor,
will get no honeymoon, since the change at the top does not
alter the crisis down below. Given Krenz's hard-line
convictions, there is little expectation that he will be the
leader who will guide East Germany along the path toward social
and economic reform. Krenz may turn out to be only a
transitional figure, put in place, like the Soviet Union's
Konstantin Chernenko, to warm the chair for a more visionary
thinker. "The real reformers will take over power in the next
six to twelve months," predicts Wolfgang Seiffert, a former
adviser in the East German Communist Party who now teaches at
West Germany's Kiel University. Others see in Krenz the
possibility of a Yuri Andropov -- someone who appeals to
conservatives but recognizes the need for change.

    Analysts were united at least in this: Krenz is no Mikhail
Gorbachev. True, Gorbachev was no Gorbachev when he ascended to
power almost five years ago. But while Gorbachev was aligned
early on with reformist factions within the Communist Party,
Krenz is indelibly marked as Honecker's creation. The son of a
tailor, Krenz joined the Young Pioneers in his early youth and
became a full-fledged Communist Party member by 18. He spent
three years at the party academy in Moscow, then returned home
to rise quickly through the party ranks. He has been a member
of the party's Central Committee since 1973. A decade later, he
joined the Politburo, gradually assuming responsibility for both
youth affairs and the country's security apparatus.

    At 52, Krenz is the youngest member of the Politburo. He is
also among the members most widely distrusted and reviled by
citizens. Rumors circulate about both his drinking and his
health. "This man is a technician of power, a man of the central
party machine," said Fred Oldenburg, a senior analyst with the
Federal Institute for East European and International Studies
in Cologne. East Germans mockingly call Krenz a "professional
youth" because he has continued to dabble in youth affairs
despite his age, organizing and attending rock concerts that are
intended to pacify restless youngsters. A West German television
crew, interviewing East Germans at random the day of Krenz's
appointment, turned up evidence of the popular disdain. "He's
one of the concrete heads," said a young man. Remarked an
elderly woman: "They should all step down and let new blood in."

    Krenz is also regarded with suspicion by many because of
his connections with the Stasi, or secret police. Few citizens
seem persuaded that Krenz had a true change of heart when he
ordered police forces to stand back during the demonstrations
that continue to spread like a brush fire, last week drawing
100,000 people into the streets of Leipzig. Many point instead
to his comments on recent trips to China and West Germany,
during which he expressed support for the Beijing leadership's
crackdown on the pro-democracy movement.

    Krenz may face resistance within ruling circles as well.
One source who has good Soviet connections and contacts within
East European diplomatic circles said, "Krenz is engaged in a
deep power struggle because some of the district party bosses
were against him. The Central Committee was not unanimously for
him." Still, Krenz is regarded by the other 20 members of the
Politburo as the best they have to offer. Krenz, who is more
animated and garrulous than Honecker, is also better attuned to
the television age. He ordered up a camera crew to record his
exit from the Central Committee session at which he was
promoted, and six hours after Honecker's resignation, Krenz
addressed the nation on live TV.

    His words gave the country's fledgling opposition little
cause for optimism. While Krenz called for a "new course" and
"dialogue with all the citizens of our country," he also made
it clear that he had no intention of bringing any of the freshly
organized reform groups into the dialogue. "Our society already
has enough democratic forums in which different interests from
various parts of the population can express themselves," he
said. While Krenz acknowledged that "problems in recent months
had not been sufficiently assessed," he stated that the party
would maintain firm control. "Socialism," he said, "is not
negotiable." His only conciliatory gesture was a hint that
travel restrictions might be relaxed. At the same time, he
encouraged East Germans to stay home, and admitted that the
flight of 135,000 citizens this year was "a draining of a
lifeblood" that amounted to "a human, political and economic
loss."

    The next day, however, Krenz went on a good-guy offensive
that favorably impressed his critics. He was shown on
television chatting, Gorbachev-style, with factory workers in
East Berlin. He let it be known that he had traveled to Leipzig
on Oct. 9 to ensure personally that police forces did not
confront demonstrators. And Krenz met with leaders of the
Protestant Church, around which the opposition movement is
grouped. Later, Bishop Werner Leich, head of the church, said
the meeting left him hopeful that Krenz would open a dialogue
with all segments of the society. Says Oldenburg: "It looks to
me like Mr. Krenz is trying to be more flexible than we had
expected."

    Others were not ready to give Krenz the benefit of the
doubt. "It makes one fearful when, again, one person is taking
on the three positions formerly held by Honecker," said Barbel
Bohley, a co-founder of New Forum, the largest of the new reform
groups. The night after Krenz's walkabout, more than 20,000
people demonstrated in Dresden, signaling that the pressure for
democratic reform would continue. West German politicians
greeted Krenz's appointment cautiously. Chancellor Helmut Kohl
said, "Reforms cannot be restricted to a mere replacement of
persons." Oskar Lafontaine, a deputy chairman of the Social
Democratic Party and Krenz's host during the East German's first
visit to West Germany last June, was also wary. "He has a
conciliatory approach and friendly manners, but is tough as
nails when it comes to substance," he said.

    In Hungary the state-run newspaper Magyar Nemzet predicted
that Krenz would be only a transitional leader. But news of
Krenz's appointment was eclipsed by the Hungarian Parliament's
decision, in a vote of 333 to 5, to embrace substantial
revisions in the country's constitution. The changes include not
only "the values of both bourgeois democracy and democratic
socialism" but also the country's name: the People's Republic
of Hungary is now the Republic of Hungary. The reaction from
Moscow was more generous, as Gorbachev sent a telegram of
congratulation to Krenz. But the news agency TASS pointedly
noted that Gorbachev encouraged Krenz to be "sensitive to the
demands of the times." Interestingly, beyond the quiet message
of change that he urged upon Honecker when he visited East
Germany three weeks ago, Gorbachev appeared to have had no
direct hand in the shake-up.

    The most optimistic prognosis is that Krenz will navigate
a minimalist course that will be enough to restore, at least
temporarily, a degree of stability. But in fast-changing
Eastern Europe, no leader can afford to tread water for too
long. Honecker tried -- and was drowned by the tidal wave of
events. His record actually boasts some accomplishments.
Honecker had two chief aims: to nurture his country's industry
and to legitimate the existence of the German Democratic
Republic. In both endeavors, Honecker largely succeeded. But
when the situation demanded that he broaden his agenda and
introduce political reforms as well, Honecker was too calcified
to muster any flexibility. If Krenz aims to ensure a kinder
legacy, he would do well to heed the cry building in the streets
and within the party rank and file.